Wall Street and the world watch and wait for the next president

With polling places across the U.S. starting to close, Wall Street and investors across the world are waiting for votes to be tallied. In the coming days, America will find out whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will be its 47th president — and which one will implement a policy agenda with big implications for markets and business.

Although stocks have, historically speaking, averaged strong returns in election years, investors can expect some shakeups over the next few days. According to Siebert Chief Investment Officer Mark Malek, the “one thing” that has Wall Street concerned is that election results are unlikely to be clear by Wednesday morning — which will probably cause some volatility.

On the campaign trail, Harris touted “a new way forward” for the middle class and the country at large. But she would be at least something of a continuation of Biden’s, especially in terms of economic policy.

Like Biden, Harris wants to focus heavily on boosting American manufacturing, unveiling a $100 billion plan to take on China and invest in artificial intelligence and other critical sectors. In September, Harris said that will ensure “the next generation of breakthrough technology is “not just invented, but built here in America by American workers.”

Harris offered a bevy of populist policies targeted toward middle-class and low-income Americans. She promised tax credits for families with young children, as well as to take on high drug prices, Wall Street’s homebuying spree, and grocery price gouging while raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations. She also wants to make housing more affordable by building houses and offering first-time homebuyers up to $25,000 in assistance.

Combined, her plans would likely benefit renewable energy stocks, automakers, companies focusing on AI, and firms working on building houses. But pharmaceutical companies and grocers may be hit by her plans. Goldman Sachs (GS+3.06%) expects that her tax credits aimed at the middle class would offset the decline in corporate investment caused by higher taxes on businesses.

Much of the cost of her economic plans would be offset by items like higher taxes and lower drug costs, according to experts, although they would still add almost $4 billion to the national debt. Over the next decade, her proposals would hike taxes by $4.1 trillion and raise $1.7 trillion. Implementing her plans while maintaining the currently strong economy could be a challenge.

Read more: How an election win for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will affect stocks

During his campaign, Trump hammered the same issues that had helped fuel his political rise almost a decade earlier, making tackling illegal immigration a core part of his message. While delivering his closing argument in New York last week, he called Election Day “Liberation Day in America,” pointing to his plans to deport millions of undocumented immigrants.

“On day one, I will launch the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out,” Trump said. “I will rescue every city and town that has been invaded and conquered, and we will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail and kick them the hell out of our country as fast as possible.”

That’s just one of the dozens of “day one” promises he’s made to voters. They include repealing Biden’s executive orders related to background checks for gun purchases and artificial intelligence, eliminating taxes on tips, and expanding oil drilling. He’s also promised to be a dictator for just that day, telling Fox News that “after that, I’m not a dictator.”

A major goal of his first year would be getting Congress to renew his 2017 tax cuts and pass a number of the other tax cuts he’s touted, including an end to taxes on Social Security and lower corporate taxes. Massive tariffs would also be on the horizon if he wins, with duties of as much as 20% planned on all foreign imports and 60% on Chinese products.

As at least one of Trump’s advisers has said, that would likely mean hardship for at least the first few years of his presidency. According to most analyses published by economists, his proposals would hasten Social Security’s insolvency, increase unemployment, raise inflation, lower GDP, massively add to the federal debt, and boost tax rates for the vast majority of Americans.

While a second Trump presidency would be expected to benefit oil and gas stocks, as well as cryptocurrency and bank stocks, his tariffs could shave off some of the benefits his administration might bring. Private prison operators would also benefit from his deportation program.