US elections 2024: control of House remains unclear

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The Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, was re-elected to a fifth term and is seen as likely to continue his leadership role if the Republicans are able to keep control of the chamber, while Elise Stefanik, another loyal Trump ally and the highest-ranking woman among House Republicans, won a sixth term in New York.

But control of the lower chamber appears to be a true toss-up, as Democrats only need to win five more seats than they did in 2022 to regain their majority.

Johnson said on Wednesday that he believed Republicans will keep a majority in the House, giving the party a “unified government”. Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader, argued, however, that the “House remains very much in play”. The path to victory for Democrats is in seats in Arizona, Oregon, Iowa and California, he said.

“The party that will hold the majority in the House of Representatives in January 2025 has yet to be determined. We must count every vote,” Jeffries said.

In an election marked by Republicans’ intense anti-transgender rhetoric, Delaware voters elected the first openly trans member of congress, Democrat Sarah McBride, 34.

So far, both Democrats and Republicans have picked up seats due to redistricting, the process of adjusting district lines to keep up with population changes, with the Alabama Democrat Shomari Figures winning a district that had been changed to ensure fair representation for Black voters, while Republicans in North Carolina flipped three districts that had been reshaped by the Republican-controlled state legislature.

Democrats also flipped two seats in New York state, with Democrat Josh Riley, an attorney, beating the incumbent Republican Marc Molinaro, and John Mannion, a Democratic state senator, defeating incumbent Republican Brandon Williams in upstate New York.

Ten of the most hotly contested House races are in California, where Democrats need to flip at least one Republican seat in order to secure a majority, according to the Associated Press.

Without control of the House, Trump, the winner of the presidential race, will face significant hurdles in implementing his legislative agenda. Election forecasts suggest either party could end up with a majority of just a few seats, which could re-create some of the problems of the 118th Congress.

In 2022, the “red wave” that Republicans had promised failed to materialize, leaving the party with a House majority of just four seats at the start of 2023. That tight margin allowed a small group of hard-right Republicans to wreak havoc on the speakership race, forcing Kevin McCarthy to endure 15 rounds of voting before capturing the gavel.

But just nine months later, McCarthy was ousted from the speaker’s chair following a revolt staged by eight members of his own conference. McCarthy’s removal kicked off weeks of chaos, with the House at a complete standstill until Johnson, then a relatively unknown lawmaker, was elected to lead the chamber.

In recent months, Republicans have had to pitch themselves to voters for another two years in power after overseeing the most unproductive Congress in decades. Democrats have attempted to capitalize on Republicans’ legislative record as they look to rebuild a majority in the House, warning voters about the dangers of continuing the “dysfunction” in Congress.

“You’ve all seen it from day one, with 15 rounds of speaker elections [and] threats of shutdowns,” Representative Suzan DelBene, chair of House Democrats’ campaign arm, told Axios in August. “Those are the things that drive people at home crazy.”

If Democrats can flip just a handful of Republican-held seats, Jeffries, the current House minority leader, is expected to take over as speaker. But despite Republicans’ checkered legislative record, Johnson has voiced confidence that his party will maintain control of the House.

Regardless of who wins a House majority, the new Congress will immediately face a highly consequential task when members are seated in January: certifying the results of the presidential election. In 2020, Trump supporters infamously attacked the Capitol in an unsuccessful effort to disrupt the congressional certification of Joe Biden’s victory, and lawmakers have sparked concern about the possibility of similar political violence after election day.

Read more of the Guardian’s 2024 US election coverage